Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may pose a risk for mainly damaging winds across much of Pennsylvania and portions of surrounding states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... As a mid-level short-wave trough shifts out of the Midwest and across the central Appalachians region, a larger trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, a cold front will progress southward and eastward across the northwestern quarter of the country, with some degree of severe potential likely evolving over portions of the northern Intermountain region/northern High Plains. A weak cool front will also cross Pennsylvania/New York and vicinity, and will also be accompanied by risk for locally severe storms. ...Eastern Ohio across Pennsylvania and southern New York... Some uncertainty still exists with respect severe potential across the central Appalachians region, given the likelihood for ongoing convection at the start of the period which would influence potential for subsequent afternoon destabilization. Still, with moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the region ahead of the weak upper trough/cool front, any uptick in afternoon convective coverage would likely be accompanied by risk for damaging winds given fast-moving storms. A SLGT/level 2 risk area is being introduced across the area given what appears to be reasonable potential for locally damaging wind gusts, with threat likely to peak during the late afternoon before waning into the evening hours. ...Portions of Idaho northeastward across parts of Montana... Cooling aloft with the approach of upper troughing, combined with diurnal heating, will permit modest destabilization to occur across the northern Intermountain region through the afternoon. As this occurs, isolated storm development is expected along an advancing cold front, primarily from southeastern Idaho northeastward into central Montana. Meager low-level moisture will likely be a limiting factor with respect to ample destabilization for a more widespread/substantial severe risk, but isolated gusty/damaging winds will be possible --- aided by the deep mixed layer and associated potential for evaporatively augmented downdrafts. Risk may continue well into the evening, as storms spread eastward toward eastern Montana. ..Goss.. 06/25/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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