SPC MD 1016

MD 1016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 307... FOR FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF OHIO.

Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois across northern
Indiana...southeast Michigan...and much of Ohio.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 307...

Valid 270240Z - 270415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms which is producing damaging winds from
eastern Illinois into south-central Michigan, and continues to sag
south. Local watch extensions and/or a downstream watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Numerous reports of wind damage and measured severe
wind gusts have been reported along a line of storms from eastern
Illinois into southern Michigan. Most damaging winds have been
associated with individual bowing segments embedded within this
line. However, despite very strong wind signatures aloft, it does
not appear the stronger (70+ kt) winds sampled by KIWX at 3-4kft are
reaching the surface based on the recent 52 mph wind gust at KVPZ
which was at the apex of the bowing segment associated with the
strongest wind signature based on radar. However, the environment
continues to remain favorable for damaging winds ahead of this line,
and there is potential for some of these stronger winds from aloft
to reach the surface. 

The unstable environment ahead of this line and a strengthening
low-level jet (now >50 kts per KIWX VWP between 1-2 km) should
sustain the severe weather threat well into the overnight hours.
Therefore, a downstream watch will likely be needed. The timing of a
new watch remains uncertain as IWX can locally extend watch 307 in
the short term, but eventually the line of storms will reach south
and east of the IWX CWA which will likely necessitate a new watch if
severe convection persists as expected.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41268697 41168786 41078836 40688840 40488816 40528677
            40398626 40058487 39328349 39248243 39918177 40598126
            41338166 42028257 41268697 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1016.html