Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level ridging across the central CONUS will continue to favor little eastward movement of an upper-level trough located across the far Northwest coast/southwest Canada. This regime will continue to promote a belt of stronger mid-level flow across the interior west, where conditions remain warm and dry, and into the north-central US. While the central and eastern thirds of the country will see relatively high RH values and scattered rain chances, fire weather concerns will persist for portions of the West. ...Nevada and adjacent areas of Utah, Idaho, and Oregon... 850-700 mb winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph by this afternoon within a belt of stronger mid-level flow across the greater NV region. Limited cloud cover will promote daytime heating, falling RH values, and deep boundary-layer mixing by the afternoon hours. Although sustained surface winds are expected to largely remain below 20 mph, these conditions should aid in mixing down the stronger winds and allow occasional to frequent wind gusts up to 25 mph. With receptive fuels already in place, elevated to locally critical conditions appear likely. ...Wyoming... Recent ensemble guidance has come into better agreement with regards to the likelihood of sustained elevated conditions and limited precipitation across portions of southwest to central WY. Although this region will likely be displaced from the better mid-level flow, pressure gradient winds should remain between 10-20 mph with reduced afternoon RH values. While ERC values across this region are not overly concerning, fine-fuel moisture should be low enough to support at least some fire weather concern. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Ensemble guidance and recent observations continue to support the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of central UT. Recent RAP mesoanalysis shows relatively high precipitable water values in place across southern to central AZ with decreasing values below 0.6 inches to the north into central UT. Forecast soundings from this periphery of the better moisture plume suggest sufficient MUCAPE may be in place during peak heating this afternoon that will support the potential for dry thunderstorms. While there is higher confidence in thunderstorm potential to the south, higher precipitable water values should limit the dry thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 07/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
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