Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central Plains into the eastern Dakotas, and western Minnesota and Iowa on Monday. ...Central/Northern Plains to western MN/IA... An strong upper trough will shift eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will result in shifting the upper ridge eastward, and strong height falls leading to a band of strong westerly flow across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Most guidance shows boundary layer moisture will increase on strong southerly low level flow, with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s F. Strong heating will result in moderate to strong destabilization ahead of a surface low and convection should develop by peak heating along a surface trough/weak frontal boundary from the eastern Dakotas southwestward into central NE. Backed low level winds in the vicinity of the surface low across eastern SD/northeast NE eastward into western MN/northwest IA will enhance effective shear and SRH. Organized cells capable of all severe hazards appear possible, though uncertainty remains in how long discrete convection could persist as a low level jet strengthens during the evening and some upscale development is likely as storms shift eastward toward the Upper Midwest. While some uncertainty remains due to periods of prior convection in the days prior to Monday, and the exact timing of the ejecting wave, confidence has increased sufficiently to include a corridor of 15% severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 07/11/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
No comments:
Post a Comment