Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and western New York. Additional strong storms are possible over the central High Plains. ...Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Western New York... A series of shortwave impulses will migrate through an upper trough pivoting east/northeast across the Great Lakes on Thursday. This will result in areas of enhanced west/southwesterly flow streaming over the region. At the surface, a very moist and unstable air mass will be in place, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F expected ahead of an east/southeastward progressing cold front across the Midwest. This is likely to be one or more MCVs migrating across the area as well, associated with expected MCSs in the Day 1 and Day 2 period. Uncertainty in the location of the surface boundary and any mesoscale features will preclude higher severe probabilities at this time, but at least isolated severe storms appear possible. High PWs and modest vertical shear amid moderate to strong instability should favor mainly a locally damaging wind threat Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. ...Central High Plains... Southeasterly low level flow will bring upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints northwestward into eastern CO/western NE. A surface trough will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains. West/northwest mid/upper flow will increase through the period as an upper trough spreads across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, shunting the western upper ridge eastward over the Plains by Friday morning. Northwesterly flow aloft atop southeasterly low level flow will result in moderate effective shear. High-based supercells are possible by late afternoon as a weak shortwave impulse ejects eastward ahead of the main upper trough. Isolated strong/severe storms capable of strong gusts and perhaps hail will be possible through the evening. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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