Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail will remain possible this evening across the Upper Midwest from Iowa into Wisconsin, and this evening across the south-central High Plains and southeast Colorado and overnight into southwest Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central/southern High Plains... At 01Z, an intense thunderstorm cluster with embedded supercells is ongoing across southeast CO. This cluster should continue to propagate east-southeastward into the mid/late evening, with a continued risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See MCD 1226 for more information regarding the short-term threat this evening. Another less-organized cluster has developed over the TX/OK Panhandles, which will pose a severe wind threat potentially into northwest OK/southwest KS. Later tonight, some upscale growth remains possible as the primary cluster moves into portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. The intensity of this cluster with time remains uncertain, as it moves into a region of increasingly strong surface-based inhibition (00Z 700 mb temperatures of 17C at DDC and 20C at AMA). The longevity of the severe threat will depend on the level of mesoscale organization the system can attain prior to encountering the strongly capped environment, but some risk of severe wind gusts will likely persist into at least a portion of southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles. ...Mid-MO Valley into IA/WI... Thunderstorms ongoing from IA into central WI at 01Z will continue to pose a threat of primarily large hail and locally damaging wind gusts for a few hours this evening, with a gradual weakening trend expected with time as surface-based CINH increases. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible this evening further southwest into northeast KS/southeast NE/northwest MO, near and just north of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Any additional development would also pose a hail/wind risk for a time this evening. Late tonight, elevated convection may develop within a warm-advection regime, with steep midlevel lapse rates supporting some lingering hail/wind gust threat. ..Dean.. 07/15/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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