Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of southeastern Illinois and vicinity, with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Other severe storms are expected across the south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...01Z Outlook Update... Much of the outlook has been updated per latest convective trends. There still remains enough potential for a concentration of severe reports in southern/southeastern Illinois ahead of a quasi-linear MCS to support an Enhanced risk (driven by 30% wind probabilities) in that area. Northern portions of the MCS will eventually reach more stable air over Indiana which should gradually lessen the severe threat in that area. Meanwhile, low-level shear is maximized across south-central Illinois and vicinity, and a few cells may have a tendency to rotate and produce a couple of tornadoes. These storms may also persist slightly longer into the night with moderate instability downstream over a broader area near the Ohio River. Farther south, convective overturning has led to a greatly diminished severe threat over much of Alabama and western Georgia. A few cells from northeastern Mississippi through southeastern Louisiana are still thriving on a moderately to strongly unstable airmass and may result in sporadic wind/tree damage in a few areas. 5%/Marginal wind probabilities have been reconfigured to address the threat in these areas. Farther west, a couple of linear segments have evolved from southeastern Colorado into east-central New Mexico, and these complexes will forward-propagate eastward toward the Panhandles/southwestern Kansas tonight with an attendant wind/hail threat. Severe probabilities remain unchanged for this scenario. ..Cook.. 07/16/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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