SPC MD 1088

MD 1088 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322... FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...Southern South Dakota and far northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

Valid 030146Z - 030245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for severe
winds and isolated severe hail for the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to propagate to the east across WW 322
with new thunderstorm development recently noted along an outflow
boundary further to the south across the SD/NE border. Although
MLCIN is beginning to increase amid the onset of diurnal cooling,
the southern edge of the SD MCS and the ongoing semi-discrete cells
along the SD/NE border remain in a favorable thermodynamic
environment on the northern extent of a region of 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Despite marginal effective bulk shear between 20-30 knots,
low-level lapse rates remain somewhat steep (7-8 C/km) across this
region. This should continue to support the potential for organized
outflow and severe wind gusts at least for the next 1-2 hours.
Additionally, nickel to quarter sized hail has been reported with
the semi-discrete storms across northern NE, suggesting that a few
instances of severe hail are possible, though the overall hail
threat is relatively low. The continued increase in MLCIN with
eastward extent and continued nocturnal cooling will likely limit
the longevity to the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44180158 44770152 45200022 45219950 44049930 43119967
            42440073 42360167 42480213 43530160 44180158 

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