SPC MD 1114

MD 1114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota and southeast North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331...

Valid 060133Z - 060330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind will continue for the
near term, but a gradual weakening trend is likely after the 02-03
UTC time frame.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that have developed along an outflow
boundary from northeast SD into southeast ND will continue to pose
the risk for severe hail, and perhaps severe winds, with any
stronger updraft pulses. Augmented low-level vorticity along the
boundary coupled with relatively long storm residence times will
continue to support the potential for a few funnel clouds and
perhaps a brief tornado - though the overall tornado potential
remains low. With time, storm interactions and undercutting outflows
should act to gradually diminish storm intensity. 

The line of storms moving into southeast SD should continue to pose
the threat for strong to severe winds for the next hour or so, but
IR imagery trends show warming cloud tops suggesting a gradual
weakening of the line. As this line continues east it will move into
a weaker shear environment with less-favorable low-level lapse rates
for supporting strong outflows.

..Moore.. 07/06/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45110058 45500017 46359924 47129831 47219726 47029655
            46339646 45169687 44029733 43479805 43289885 43419937
            43919975 44550022 45110058 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1114.html