SPC MD 1134

MD 1134 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Areas affected...western through central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 080035Z - 080130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms with damaging wind the primary threat will
move into western North Dakota between 01-02Z. A severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A couple of lines of severe storms capable of producing
widespread damaging wind continue through eastern Montana at 45 to
50 kt and should approach the ND border by 0130Z. Downstream of the
line the atmosphere is moderately unstable with 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Convective
inhibition will increase with onset of nocturnal cooling. However,
strong convergence along the gust front supported by a 65 kt rear
inflow jet, a strengthening low-level jet as well as deeper forcing
accompanying a progressive shortwave trough should maintain the MCS
into western and central ND next several hours.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   46120367 47880401 48720383 48980240 48650067 46240067
            46120367 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1134.html