SPC MD 1338

MD 1338 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...and
Northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252319Z - 260045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind/hail threat, watch unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms has
developed across north-central Nebraska, with more widely scattered
storms over northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. These storms
have developed during peak heating amid modest instability (MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/kg) and weak effective shear approaching 30 kt. Only
weak pulse-like storms have emerged, with mainly large regenerating
outflows characteristic of the environment that shows steep
low-level lapse rates (8 C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer.


A general but subtle increase in convective coverage is likely to
occur throughout the evening, particularly along expanding/merging
outflow boundaries that migrate eastward into improving low-level
moisture/instability (approaching 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) downstream of
the current convective activity over central Nebraska. Given the
weakly sheared environment, storm intensity is expected to remain
generally low. However, an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may
occur with the strongest cells throughout the remainder of the
evening.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40780322 42020252 42760028 42639859 41209850 39989907
            38810097 38660231 39350317 40780322 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1338.html