Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OVER THE OHIO VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and hail will be possible across the Ohio vicinity, and from western Wisconsin to the northeast New Mexico vicinity on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper flow field -- with a large ridge in the West and a corresponding trough over the East -- will persist Sunday across the CONUS. At the surface, a weak front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast, while a weak front shifts southeastward across the upper Midwest and central Plains. Elsewhere, the surface pattern will remain weak/largely nondescript through the period. ...Western Wisconsin southwestward to northeastern New Mexico... As several disturbances rotate southward/southeastward around the periphery of the western U.S. ridge, one more prominent short-wave trough is expected to shift southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Plains states Sunday. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface cool front -- likewise shifting southeastward across the central portion of the country. During the afternoon, destabilization in the vicinity of the advancing front will likely support isolated to widely scattered storm development along the boundary -- from portions of Wisconsin southwestward to the southern Rockies. With mid-level northwesterlies generally expected in the 25 to 35 kt range atop the front, a few stronger storms could evolve, along with attendant risk for locally gusty/damaging winds and possibly hail, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Ohio and portions of adjacent states... As a weak cyclonic disturbance -- embedded in west-northwesterly mid-level flow -- shifts across the Great Lakes region, and associated/very weak surface trough will cross the eastern Michigan/Ohio region during the day. Weak lapse rates aloft will hinder diurnal destabilization potential to some degree, resulting in modest destabilization -- though still likely sufficient to support potential for widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. As updrafts evolve, presence of 25 to 30 kt mid-level west-northwesterlies may permit some organization -- which would likely be associated with potential for locally stronger wind gusts. Given potential for a near-severe gust or two, will maintain 5% wind probability across this area, through early evening. ..Goss.. 08/15/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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