SPC Aug 30, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and
from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low is forecast to be in the Four Corners region on
Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains over parts of the
southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into
west and north-central Texas. Although confidence is low for the
exact position of the front, some model solutions suggest the front
will be located from near Midland extending eastward into the Texas
Hill Country and then northeastward to west of the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metro by early afternoon. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints
are forecast to be 60s F. In response, moderate instability should
develop ahead of the front by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form
near the front during the mid to late afternoon will likely move
into the stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear along with
steep low-level lapse rates may be sufficient for a marginal
wind-damage threat. Hail could occur with the stronger updrafts as
well.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level tough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture is forecast to be from the mid Mississippi Valley extending
northeastward into the lower Great Lakes by afternoon. 
Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of this corridor as
temperatures warm during the day. Moderate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates will create conditions favorable for a
marginal severe threat. Thunderstorms that develop in these areas
where instability become maximized could obtain a wind-damage and
hail threat, mainly during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/30/2020

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html