SPC MD 1402

MD 1402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 050018Z - 050215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms will be capable of large hail this evening as
well as damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth and organization
along an effective boundary in central North Dakota is possible,
which would mean a marginally increased wind gust threat. Limited
MLCAPE and and organizing low-level jet decrease confidence in the
need for a WW.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave continues to approach
northwestern North Dakota this evening. Convection has begun to move
in from Canada with further development occurring along the cold
front and along an effective warm front to the east. Modifying the
00Z observed BIS sounding suggests 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of
this activity with around 30 kts of effective shear. With a
mid-level lapse rate near 7 C/km, some large hail is possible with
more intense/discrete storms. Given the upper-level forcing, this
activity will likely last into the evening, perhaps 9-10 CDT, until
encountering more stable conditions to the east. If storms can
cluster and grow upscale, a small linear segment may progress
southeast along the effective boundary, marginally increasing the
wind gusts threat. Lack of a more buoyant airmass and a
weak/negligible low-level jet this evening lend to uncertainty with
how far southeast and how severe the activity will be. At present,
no WW is anticipated.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48670340 49030316 49040136 48820078 47900014 46769998
            46410097 46420181 46900309 47550353 48670340 

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