SPC MD 1431

MD 1431 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE

Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090846Z - 091045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible over southeast NE and
northeast KS during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of multicellular storms, extending from roughly
35 miles east of HSI (in southeast NE) southward to about 20 miles
northeast of HUT (in central KS), has developed and intensified over
the past hour or so. This line developed along the leading edge of
modest low-level jet extending from the TX Panhandle into central
KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting moderate buoyancy and
initially strong updrafts. However, vertical shear is modest and
overall storm organization is weak. That trend is generally expected
to continue, resulting in brief, strong updrafts with little severe
potential. Given the hostile low-level thermodynamic environment and
lack of more favorable vertical shear, these storms will likely
dissipate within the next two hours or so.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39599786 40359804 40839836 41189826 41479739 41039676
            39849673 38239691 38049779 39599786 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1431.html