SPC MD 1483

MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR

Mesoscale Discussion 1483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK and western AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140742Z - 140945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing storms may pose an isolated large hail and
strong/gusty wind threat as they move southeastward early this
morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with a weak mid-level
perturbation moving southeastward across southern KS and modest
low-level warm advection are likely supporting storm development
over eastern OK and far western AR early this morning. The VWP from
KSRX show a veering wind profile with height through mid levels,
although flow remains rather weak below 6 km AGL. Still, there
should be enough deep-layer shear to support some updraft
organization in tandem with moderate elevated instability (MUCAPE
generally 2000-2500 J/kg). The presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates coupled with the sufficient deep-layer shear suggests an
isolated, marginally severe hail risk with this initial development.
With time, storms may have a tendency to cluster and develop
southeastward into western AR as the low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves over this area. Strong/gusty winds cannot be ruled out given
the reservoir of buoyancy present, but the overall severe risk
should remain too isolated/marginal to justify watch issuance early
this morning.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34019506 35479593 36289624 36579565 36389442 35799351
            34869314 33979333 33659421 34019506 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1483.html