Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160005Z - 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue southwestward for a few
more hours and should start to weaken after sunset.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in northeast Oklahoma has produced
numerous reports of hail in southeast Kansas including a report of
2.5 inches in Cherokee county. The environment ahead of these storms
remains favorable with MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg and mid-level lapse
rates around 8 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, the KINX VWP
shows around 25-30 kts of northwesterly flow between 3-5 km and
around 40 kts of northwesterly flow around 8km. This should be
sufficient to continue to support storm organization through the
evening. The primary question is the longevity of this storm
activity. SPC mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN continue to erode ahead
of this storm activity as it moves south. The best low-level mass
convergence and greatest instability remains along and south of the
front on the western edge of this activity. Therefore, additional
development will likely be favored on the western edge of this
convection leading to continued southwesterly propagation. Forcing
for ascent remains limited given a lack of a clear mid-level
shortwave and no low-level jet. This should lead to the storm
activity decaying as the boundary layer cools. However, given the
moist airmass ahead of the storms, this may be a slow process and
storms could persist for a few hours after sunset.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36979656 37289567 37179464 36379447 35669465 35309594
35499676 36319714 36979656
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1505.html
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