SPC MD 1516

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170023Z - 170200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch is possible as a cluster
of storms drifts south out of Nebraska

DISCUSSION...Storms have quickly congealed into a cluster in
southeast Nebraska and have started to accelerate
south-southwestward. Expect this storm activity to follow the
instability gradient which would take the cluster into north-central
and eventually central Kansas. There is some uncertainty how far
south this cluster will maintain severe thresholds this evening and
into the overnight hours. The air mass south of this activity
remains favorable for severe convection with MLCAPE around 3000 to
4000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis and effective shear around 40 kts per
KUEX VWP which should maintain this cluster for at least a few more
hours. If the cluster becomes well organized, it may persist south
of watch 443 and 444 and a new watch may be needed. In addition, new
convection has recently formed from Jewell to Graham counties and
has shown quite robust updraft growth. Therefore, if these storms
maintain this intensity as they move southeast, a new watch may need
to be issued sooner. These trends will be monitored over the next
hour.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39360014 39919889 40169799 40209725 40119689 39759669
            39199682 38759724 38519778 38529808 38449885 38529943
            38660012 39360014 

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