Mesoscale Discussion 1532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020 Areas affected...Parts of northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192356Z - 200130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of storms may continue developing and overspreading the Ontario/Minnesota border area, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind, through 8-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...A couple of strong to severe storms are in the process of approaching and crossing the Ontario/Minnesota border area. Activity is generally focused within a narrow low-level thermal ridge, ahead of a slowly southward advancing cold front. This likely has been aided by forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level short wave trough, but this forcing is beginning to shift off to the east-southeast, into and across the upper Great Lakes region. Still, a corridor with thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, and a relatively moist boundary-layer with CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, may maintain storms another couple of hours in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. This activity may pose a continuing risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before encountering a cooler (and cooling), drier and more stable environment farther south, by around 02-03Z. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 49079421 48229096 47528983 47919276 48359437 49079421Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1532.html
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