Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Areas affected...Central to southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250355Z - 250600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe hail and isolated wind risk over the next few hours as storms move into southern Wisconsin. Trends will be monitored for additional storms/upscale growth later tonight across western Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...KGRB radar imagery over the past hour has shown a cluster of elevated storms continue to increase in intensity over central WI with one-inch hail and mid-level rotation noted. This intensification is likely due to an strengthening low-level jet near 850 mb that has augmented isentropic ascent along a warm frontal zone that is draped across the state. These elevated storms will continue to reside in a favorable environment (featuring around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear) as they move into southeast WI over the next few hours. This environment should remain steady state in the near term and suggests that ongoing convection will likely maintain intensity. As such, severe hail and sporadic strong winds will remain possible. In the near term, the severe coverage is expected to remain limited and precludes the need for a watch at this time. However, additional weak thunderstorms have developed within the past 30 minutes across western WI. The potential exists for further development and eventual cold pool amalgamation/upscale growth into central WI. Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible later tonight. ..Moore/Grams.. 08/25/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 42618975 43409007 43879087 44349176 44769225 45179206 45169137 44829017 44518942 44228892 43588831 43078804 42868798 42578789 42218830 42308903 42618975Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1564.html
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