Tuesday, August 25, 2020

SPC MD 1564

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
MD 1564 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Areas affected...Central to southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250355Z - 250600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe hail
and isolated wind risk over the next few hours as storms move into
southern Wisconsin. Trends will be monitored for additional
storms/upscale growth later tonight across western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...KGRB radar imagery over the past hour has shown a
cluster of elevated storms continue to increase in intensity over
central WI with one-inch hail and mid-level rotation noted. This
intensification is likely due to an strengthening low-level jet near
850 mb that has augmented isentropic ascent along a warm frontal
zone that is draped across the state. These elevated storms will
continue to reside in a favorable environment (featuring around 2000
J/kg MUCAPE and 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear) as they move
into southeast WI over the next few hours. This environment should
remain steady state in the near term and suggests that ongoing
convection will likely maintain intensity. As such, severe hail and
sporadic strong winds will remain possible. 

In the near term, the severe coverage is expected to remain limited
and precludes the need for a watch at this time. However, additional
weak thunderstorms have developed within the past 30 minutes across
western WI. The potential exists for further development and
eventual cold pool amalgamation/upscale growth into central WI.
Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible later tonight.

..Moore/Grams.. 08/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   42618975 43409007 43879087 44349176 44769225 45179206
            45169137 44829017 44518942 44228892 43588831 43078804
            42868798 42578789 42218830 42308903 42618975 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1564.html

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