SPC MD 1648

MD 1648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Areas affected...southern Nebraska into northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310442Z - 310645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may eventually form along a surging cold front
across Nebraska and into Kansas, with wind and hail potential.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a strong cold front moving
across central NE and into northwest KS. While the air mass is
currently capped, it remains unstable with MUCAPE to 2000 J/kg. 

Given the strength of the low-level convergence, storms are expected
to form along the front. These may briefly be supercells before
getting undercut as deep-layer shear is favorable along with lapse
rates aloft, and it is not clear whether an MCS will be able to form
and keep pace with the surging front. Trends will continued to be
monitored for a potential hail and wind threat developing over the
next few hours.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41819769 41329695 40519659 39649702 39049765 38939854
            39099902 39579976 40239993 40719929 41819769 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html