SPC MD 1661

MD 1661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...NORTH-CENTRAL TX

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...Central/Southeast OK...North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010439Z - 010615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will spread into
southeast Oklahoma over the next few hours. Severe thunderstorm
watch may need to be expanded downstream.

DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough continues its eastward movement
across the southern Plains this evening. Over the last hour or so,
numerous thunderstorm clusters have evolved within an elongated
warm-advection corridor from west of OKC-MLC. This activity is
gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing for
ascent spreads into this region ahead of the short wave.
Additionally, a north-south band of intensifying storms has become
more organized from Montague into Wise County TX. This band of
storms appears strongly correlated with the ejecting trough and
should track east-northeast along the Red River over the next
several hours. There is some concern this squall line could begin to
produce locally severe wind gusts as it is more favorably oriented
to the mean background flow.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 09/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35739762 35289563 34249532 33359715 34489738 35209792
            35739762 

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