SPC MD 1698

MD 1698 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR JACKSONVILLE AREA NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Areas affected...Jacksonville area northward into far southeast
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162334Z - 170130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening, with a
brief tornado possible over the next couple hours mainly over far
southeast Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front over
southeast Georgia, with easterly winds along it. Meanwhile, a
warmer, more unstable air mass exists to the south over the
Jacksonville area, with southerly surface winds.

An arcing band of storms associated with Sally has been intersecting
this front, where lift and shear are most favorable for tornadoes.
The Jacksonville VWP shows 0-1 SRH around 100 m2/s2 within the
warmer air mass, which is on the low-end of favorable spectrum for
tornadoes. Therefore, as storms within the line continue to develop
northeastward, the best region for a brief tornado will continue to
be along the front, with threat again waning as storms move north of
the boundary.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

LAT...LON   30308201 30708219 30918244 31158253 31328230 31558159
            31528119 31388110 30988135 30728131 30468145 30308165
            30298168 30308201 

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