SPC MD 1758

MD 1758 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Areas affected...portions of west Texas and far western Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 270522Z - 271115Z

SUMMARY...Forcing for ascent will gradually overspread the
discussion area from west to east, resulting in a broad area of
icing through 11Z Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...At 05Z, mid-level frontogenetical forcing was beginning
to induce areas of light to moderate precipitation in western
portions of the discussion area.  The forcing was occurring atop a
cold, yet moist low-level airmass, with an appreciable warm nose
(4-7C at 700 hPa) favoring a mix of sleet and freezing rain as the
precipitation shield continues to expand.  Resultant profiles also
suggest potential for robust, lightning-producing convection that
may also enhance precipitation rates in a few areas.  Over the next
several hours, models indicate that this precipitation shield will
expand while migrating northeastward.  Freezing-rain rates should
exceed 0.05-0.1 inch per hour for several hours on the southern and
eastern extent of the discussion area (generally from Midland to
Abilene to Altus) where shallower cold air should limit the amount
of refreezing of precipitation.  Farther north, deeper cold air
should tend to support more sleet, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5
inch sleet per three hours possible in a few areas.

..Cook.. 10/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35020302 35620272 36280184 36580014 36249947 35499922
            34439927 33839934 32429937 31389960 30789996 30510071
            30290171 30310248 30750297 31590341 32440341 35020302 

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