Mesoscale Discussion 1759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western/Central OK Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 270919Z - 271315Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will increase across far northwest TX and western/central OK over the next few hours. Relatively high precipitation rates and lightning are possible within the deeper convective cells. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield, with numerous embedded convective elements, continues to spread northeastward ahead of the shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. Recent surface observations place the freezing line from near BKD in North Texas northeastward through south-central OK to just north of TUL in northeast OK. The majority of the precipitation spreading northeastward will remain north of this line. 06Z regional soundings as well as the latest RAP forecast soundings also show a well-defined warm layer between 850 mb and 700 mb, with maximum temperatures from 4 to 8 deg C. Some modest instability also exists above this layer between the warm nose and the cold mid-level temperatures. These thermal profiles support a mix of sleet and freezing rain, as well as lightning within the deep cores. Based on recent radar and lightning trends, the highest precipitation rates over the next few hours are expected from parts of northwest TX into central OK. ..Mosier.. 10/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34450045 36310000 36779853 36229735 35279692 33849795 33509866 33579971 34450045Read more
from SPC Forecast Products https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1759.html
No comments:
Post a Comment