Frost, Record-Breaking Cold Temperatures, and Strange Weather Features

Cold air with snow and record-breaking cold temperatures moved in Saturday morning, with some odd weather features thrown in.  And even an early snow record in Spokane.

Snow Spokane on Saturday, 

Picture courtesy of u/VeeMeeVee

Temperatures this (Sunday) morning dropped to below freezing over both eastern Washington and much of the west--the first frost of the season for much of western Washington.   

Take a look at this morning's minimum temperatures (see below, click on image to expand).   Lots of below freezing temps in the west, but eastern WA really impresses, with cold valley sites getting into the single digits.

If you ever want to appreciate the cold-blocking capabilities of the Rocky Mountains, examine a broader plot of last night's lows (see below).  Below-zero temperatures all  over western Montana.  The coldest air of the continental interior is blocked by the Rockies, and eastern Washington gets the warmed over cold leftovers.   Western Washington, protected by the Cascades gets the tepid remains of eastern Washington's cold meal.  A better stop this metaphor before it gets me into trouble.

Records-galore for cold and snow were broken during last 48h.   For example:

• Spokane had 7 inches of snow on the ground Saturday morning, the snowiest October day in their long 135 year historical record.
• Spokane's maximum temperature of 31° F Saturday was the earliest subfreezing maximum temperature in the 135 year historical record.
• -10 F at Cut Bank MT broke a daily record which had stood for 101 years.
• -13 F at Puntzi Mtn Airfield in BC appears to be an October record low temperature:
• A number of locations in the region tied or beat their daily record low temperatures for the date.

The visible satellite pictures had had a number of interesting features. The snow across eastern Washington is clearly evident (blue arrow) in the imagery today and you can also view the considerable snow over the north Cascades.

Stranger perhaps is the thin tendril of clouds that extended westward from the Olympic Peninsula coast on Saturday and then swung to the south and southeast offshore (see below).   This feature resulted from the easterly offshore flow, with northeasterly and southeasterly air flows (blue arrows) converging offshore and producing upward motion and that interesting cloud line.

The National Snow Analysis shows a big increase during the last week (left image is today, right image on October 18th).

And we are way ahead of last year at the same time (see below)

If you want to see an image that is a bit deceptive but a lot of fun, below is the current percentage of normal snowpack from the US Snotel network:  TWO THOUSAND PERCENT OF NORMAL over NE Washington and nearly 1000% of normal over the north Cascades.  Values that might cause inveterate skiers to run for their equipment!   But this early in the season, such percentages mean little, as do the crazy low values we observed in late spring.

Expect dry and moderating weather during the next few days.

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My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found here. An important story about Matt Martinez, Director of Content of KNKX, is found here.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/frost-record-breaking-cold-temperatures.html

Strong Winds, Cold Air and Mountain Snows Ahead

 Note: my new podcast on Wind, Cold and Snow will be out tomorrow morning
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The weather is about to get MUCH more active in our region, with the approach of a potent disturbance from the northwest, the invasion of frigid air from northern Canada, and the rapid increase in winds over Northwest Washington and the coast to 50-60 mph in places.  Even central Puget Sound will get a good taste of this wintry Zephyr.

The latest infrared satellite image shows a large area of clouds and precipitation approaching our region from the Northwest (see below).

This impressive feature is the result of a strong upper-level trough (area of low pressure) that is moving southeastward on the west side of large upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific.  This trough will be approaching Washington State tomorrow afternoon (see upper level map at 2 PM tomorrow below).  Changes in the position of this trough (too far inland) now make it unlikely we will see snowflakes near sea level...but it will still bring a lot of weather action.

The surface reflection of the upper level trough...a small but potent low pressure system will move down the coast tomorrow (see the sea level pressure map at 11 AM tomorrow morning, solid lines are sea level pressure, colors are temperature, blue is cold).  This will bring strong winds to the coast and northwest Washington.

Below are the predicted gusts at that time:  some locations could see gusts to 40 mph or more.

But that is just the first stage in the upcoming weather adventure!

Twelve hours later (11 PM Friday), the low center will be crossing the southern Cascades and cold air will surge to the Canadian border, with some of it pushing into eastern Washington and Montana.  A huge pressure gradient (difference) will accompany the cold air (lots of pressure lines, also known as isobars).  In Montana the conditions will be severe.

Strong northeasterly winds will starting pushing through the Fraser River Valley and into Northwest Washington, something illustrated by the maximum gusts predicted by the UW/Seattle City Light WindWatch system (below) at 11 PM Friday.  Some gusts will push 40-50 mph and northern Puget Sound will get some of the winds as well.

By 5 PM on Saturday, eastern WA will be in the chiller, with cold accompanied by strong northerly winds.    The difference in pressure will build across the Cascades.  That is going to be important.

By 2 AM on Sunday, strong winds will continue to exit the Fraser River Valley and push out the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but they will joined by powerful finds moving across the Stampede Gap in the central Cascades that will accelerate down to Enumclaw, Black Diamond and out to Tacoma...and even the coast.

And did I mention snow?  With the upper level trough providing upward vertical motion and easterly flow providing more uplift on the northeastern slopes of the Cascades, there will be as much as a foot over and to the east of the crest of north Cascades.  A few flurries might reach sea level near Vancouver due to the cold Fraser outflow.  Snow will greatly lessen south of roughly Snoqualmie Pass.

Beyond snow, the accumulated precipitation  through Saturday morning at 5 PM (below) shows that there will be wet conditions in the Cascades down to southern Oregon (good for ending the fires)...but not that much over the Willamette Valley and Puget Sound, which will be rainshadowed by the coastal mountains and the Olympics. 

Precipitation will be over on Saturday morning and expect cool, blustery condition with lots of sun over the weekend.  Easterly flow will dominate and that usually brings dry conditions west of the Cascade crest.  You will sunblock and a jacket. There will certainly be power outages over NW Washington and around Enumclaw and vicinity.   Sunday morning will be particularly cold, with freezing temperatures over the region.

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My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found here. An extraordinary story about Matt Martinez, Director of Content of KNKX, is found here.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/strong-winds-cold-air-and-mountain.html

New Podcast: Friday Wind, Showery Weekend and the Revenge of the Blob

New Podcast:  Friday Wind, Showery Weekend and the Revenge of the Blob

Click the play button to listen

Episode Description

After a blustery Friday, expect a cool weekend with some showers on Sunday morning.  But one thing has NOT been cool is the low temperatures we have experienced each morning.  For over a month, our low temperatures have been 5-8F above normal.  Why?  It turns out that the feared BLOB of warm eastern Pacific temperatures have returned and that warm water is keeping our temperatures toasty at night.  In the second segment of my podcast I will tell you all you need about the BLOB and why it strengthened over the summer.

Want to support the podcast? Click the Patreon box below.  I will be hosting a zoom session for Patreon supporters at 10 AM PDT Saturday to answer questions and to interact on all things weather and climate. 

Support on Patreon

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Stream my podcast from your favorite services:

 Listen on Apple Podcasts

 Listen on Spotify Podcasts

 Listen on Google Podcasts

---

My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found here. An extraordinary story about Matt Martinez, Director of Content of KNKX, is found here.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/new-podcast-friday-wind-showery-weekend.html

Grass Fires Not Forest Fires Dominated Washington State in 2020: What Does That Imply Regarding Global Warming?

The wildfire season has now ended in Washington State, with no major fires currently burning and a very wet weather system approaching for the weekend.

Although the first half of the fire season had below normal acreage burned, we ended up with more fires and more burned acreage than normal (see WA DNR statistics below).  

Global warming?  Or is something else going on?

Some politicians and media outlets are claiming that global warming was the explanation, but as we shall see, something else was going on:  COVID-inspired trash burning and the extraordinary dominance of grass fires over forest fires.

Let's begin by looking at a map of this summer's wildfires over the state (see below).   There were some big fire areas in eastern Washington.  But look carefully and you will notice something important:  nearly all the acreage burned was not in terrain or in forests, but in the grasslands and scrub of the  eastern Washington lowlands.

If you wanted a clearer view of this situation, here is a recent MODIS satellite image centered on the Columbia Basin in which the burned areas are indicated by red.  You can see the agricultural areas (light green) and forested areas (darker green).  

We can compare the fires this year, with the fires of the past 20 years (see below), many of which have been on the eastern Cascade slopes and the slopes of the Okanagan and Blue Mountains.  But not this year.

As I noted in earlier blogs, 2020 was not a particularly favorable year for higher-elevation wildfires, with normal April 1 snowpack and temperature/precipitation conditions that were not particularly unusual.

But this year, something did happen that made the grass/sageland burn.  Something unusual. 

 Extraordinary, record-breaking winds (for the season) hit eastern Washington, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph on September 7th.

These winds both helped initiate grass fires, for example from failing, sparking powerlines, and caused the rapid growth and spread of the grass/sagebrush/brush fires.

The grass was already dry enough to burn after a normal, hot dry summer in eastern Washington.  And even if it were WET, a few hours of strong winds would have ensured it was dry enough to burn.

A plot of the ten-hour fuel moisture at the Columbia NWR RAWS fire weather site in central Columbia Basin (below)  for the 60 days ending Sept 8 shows the story.   Then ten-hour fuel moisture is for vegetation of 1/4 to 1 inch in diameter and values under 15% are dry enough to burn.  As you can see, the 10-h fuels were dry enough to burn all summer (below 10%).  Grasses (one-hour fuels) would have been even drier.  The same thing would be true of summers of other years (I checked).

The area near site and location are shown below:

Summer grass fires like this have NOTHING to do with climate change. 

 A normal summer makes these fuels dry enough to burn.  Increasing temperatures are irrelevant, and global warming models do not show much change in precipitation (and even if it got drier it would not make a difference).  The temperature and precipitation today are sufficient for fires.

The key issue in this event was the strong winds, which were accompanied by COLDER THAN NORMAL temperatures.   The crazy powerful winds were forced by a cold, high pressure areas to the east and such cold highs should become LESS frequent under global warming.

And there is something else.   Unirrigated areas in eastern Washington are much more flammable today than a century ago because of the invasion of highly flammable invasive grasses such as Cheatgrass (a.k.a. grassoline)--check the map below to see this.

It is totally frustrating that certain politicians, some local newspapers, and some environmental activist groups are pushing an inaccurate claim, not supported by any scientific evidence, that the eastern Washington wildfire siege of September 7-8 was the result of global warming.  It is simply not true.

Such false claims not only promote unnecessary fear and concern but work against taking steps that would actually help mitigate future future fires.

For  example, when very strong winds are forecast (and they were), eastern WA utilities could de-energize the power lines, as done in California.  Homes in the middle of grassland/brush could be built or remodeled to lesson their tendency to burn.  And grass/brush/flammables could be cleared away around buildings to create a safe space.

As I mentioned above, Washington State had more fires than normal.   The cause was not global warming, but COVID-19.

Many of the fires this year were debris fires that got out of hand.   Folks, forced to stay home because of COVID ,decided to clean up their properties and then burned the debris.  To quote from Hillary Franz, Commissioner of Public Lands:

“Everybody is following the 'stay home, stay safe' order. They’re getting more time at home to do yard work. We’re seeing an unprecedented number of debris piles, and we’re seeing an unprecedented number of people that are lighting those piles on fire”

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This is the kind of blog that gets me into trouble with the climate activist community, but folks in our state deserve the truth and only the truth will allow society to take rational steps to protect itself from environmental threats.   

After blogs like this, activist groups like 350Seattle typically call me names (denier, etc) and previously pushed KNKX to kick me off the radio.  Well, they succeeded at KNKX but at least I have this blog and the support of many of you.  

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My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found here.

Stream my podcast from your favorite services:

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from Cliff Mass Weather Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/grass-fires-not-forest-fires-dominated.html

Is Wildfire Smoke Making Our Fog More Persistent?

Satellite picture for western Washington around 1 PM Saturday

 The National Weather Service's forecast for Saturday had a problem.  For central Puget Sound it was predicting clouds in the morning and then becoming mostly sunny (see below)

But instead fog held in ALL day, something shown by the Space Needle PanoCam at 3:10 PM Saturday.  You don't see conditions like that holding in all day very much.

And the UW high resolution forecasts of fog/log clouds for 5 PM Saturday started with fog in the morning and rapidly burned it back (see forecast at that time).

An error that the NOAA/NWS HRRR model also made (forecast for 5 PM Saturday also shown):

In fact, this error--the unrealistic burn off of low-level cloud--has happened several times during the past few week, with fog and low stratus showing unusual persistence.

Local meteorologists and some of the NOAA modelers have been musing that perhaps, just perhaps, there is a reason for this uber-persistent low clouds and our model' inability to get it right:  wildfire smoke.

And there are good physical reasons why smoke might be the explanation.

For example, smoke scatters some of the solar radiation back to space, lessening the solar heating available to burn off the fog.

In earlier blogs I showed the effect clearly by presenting the solar radiation on the roof of my building before and after the smoke moved in on Sept 11th (see below).

Smoke at any level, reducing solar radiation reaching the surface, could help the fog persist.   Many operational weather forecast models do not have have this effect.  However, the NOAA HRRRsmoke model AND the UW  model do try to simulate the solar dimming from smoke.  Thus, we need to find another explanation.

And there is one. 

Cloud droplets generally form on small particles in the atmosphere called Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN).  Smoke particles can act cloud condensation nuclei.  So adding smoke can lead to MORE cloud condensation nuclei and MORE cloud droplets (see left side below).  If the amount of water available doesn't change (which is normally the case) then having more nuclei leads to more, but smaller cloud droplets .  And it turns out the having more particles leads to the cloud being more reflective, which REDUCES the solar radiation available to burn off the cloud.

More particles from smoke or pollution can make a cloud more reflective, something we see in the Pacific as marine traffic adds particles to low clouds, producing a feature called ship tracks (see below).

And there is more!   Having a lot of small particles works against producing drizzle, which takes moisture out of the fog/stratus.  Bigger droplets become heavier and fall out more quickly, collecting other droplet as they fall.  Thus. having the moisture in smaller droplets helps maintain the fog!

Now here is the key issue.   Most models, including the UW WRF and the NOAA HRRR model do not properly simulate these cloud effects and thus fail to forecast the ability of smoke to keep the clouds around.

The above is a physically plausible explanation, and certainly there were enhanced values of small particles in the lower atmosphere over Puget Sound  on Saturday (see the small particles concentration at Seattle's Beacon Hill below).

Some of my colleagues at the NOAA Lab in Boulder, CO believe the above is a real possibility, and during the next month UW graduate student Robert Conrick will be exploring this mechanism with sophisticated modeling experiments.  Will let you know what we find out. 

Such situations are why science is so much fun, with interesting theories to test and real practical value when we solve the mystery.

_______________________________________________

Stream my podcast from your favorite services:

 Listen on Apple Podcasts

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Want to support the creation of the blog and podcast? 

Click here to support on Patreon!

____________________________________________________

My blog on KNKX and the Undermining of American Freedom is found here.

An extraordinary story about Matt Martinez, Program Director of KNKX, is found here.  All KNKX listeners should read it.

from Cliff Mass Weather Blog https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/is-wildfire-smoke-making-our-fog-more.html