MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 538...
VALID 170143Z - 170315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 538 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES MOSTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE WW AREA WITH ALL THREATS POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM LBF TO GLD AND POINTS SOUTHWEST...PUSHES SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS IS NOW ENTERING NEBRASKA NEAR THE
FURNAS/HARLAN COUNTY BORDER. THESE DISCRETE STORMS ARE EITHER
UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND OR WILL SOON BE INGESTED BY AN
EXPANDING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LOWERING THE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY /MLCAPE
RANGES FROM 250 TO 750 J/KG/ AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT ORIENTED
AT A LARGE ANGLE TO THE LINE ORIENTATION SUGGESTS CIRCULATIONS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CORE OF A 700 MB JET IN EXCESS
OF 60 KT NOSING INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT GAIN
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF SMALL BOWS WITHIN THE LINE.
..CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 41030011 41099945 40999883 40449868 39949888 39529906
39199939 38909988 38510039 38170134 38160182 38690204
39320165 39880121 40460089 41030011
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