SPC MD 1956

MD 1956 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 537... FOR TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO SWRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...

VALID 170207Z - 170330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES...PARTICULARLY IN ANY
LINGERING DISCRETE STORMS.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE THROUGH 04-06Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO THE ONGOING INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STORMS PERSIST AHEAD OF WHAT MAY BE AN EVOLVING SQUALL
LINE...AND THIS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME...BEFORE DISCRETE STORMS MERGE INTO OR ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE
SQUALL LINE.  THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SQUALL LINE PROBABLY
WILL BE SLOW...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS SURGING TOWARD THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND NORTHWEST TEXAS DURING THE 04-06Z TIME
FRAME.  IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW
/50-70 KT/...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE IN ANY LINGERING
DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH THE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.

..KERR.. 11/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35600200 37240152 37950091 38599967 37879869 35659913
            33449994 32260106 31750204 31970262 33150267 35600200 

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