MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 539... VALID 170216Z - 170345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 539 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 539 WITH THE TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE FAVORING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE TSTM ACTIVITY W OF MAF AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND/OR COOL POOL AMALGAMATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS LINE CURRENTLY REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CATCH THE LINE SOON. AS IT DOES...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE STORM UPDRAFTS AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS BRIEFLY INTENSIFY UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS. AFTER THIS FRONTAL INTERACTION OCCURS...THE PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS IS IN QUESTION...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE-BASED CINH AND THE RESULTING TENDENCY FOR ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LINE CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER.. 11/17/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30480328 33370305 33379989 30480023 30480328Read more
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