DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS DEEP SOUTH... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL NC TO SE VA... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NEAR THE ARK-LA-TEX TO MID-SOUTH. ...MID ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL GULF COAST... HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING SPATIAL EXTENT FOR LOW TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE ON-TRACK LIMITING FACTORS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. ...NERN TX INTO WEST TN... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT GUIDANCE WITH THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. ..GRAMS.. 12/24/2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015/ ...MID ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. THE REMNANT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM VA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO GA/AL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SLOWLY RELAXING. THESE PROCESSES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF INTENSIFICATION /INCLUDING SUPERCELL OR BOW FORMATION/ ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. ...NERN TX INTO WEST TN TONIGHT... LATER TONIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE FROM EAST TX INTO AR/TN AND NORTHERN MS. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/u32qoI
No comments:
Post a Comment