SPC MD 320

MD 0320 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TX

Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...east-central into eastern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242303Z - 250000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed by 7-8pm CDT.  Hail and wind
will be the primary severe hazards but the potential development of
low-level mesocyclones later this evening may pose an isolated
tornado risk.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows bands of convection
within a broad shield of stratocumulus from the upper coast of TX
north-northeastward into the ArkLaTex.  Surface temperatures have
warmed into the lower-middle 70s with a narrow corridor of mid-upper
60s degree F dewpoints near CLL and only near 60 F near and
northeast of UTS.  As a result, a gradient of buoyancy (1000 J/kg
MLCAPE to less than 500 J/kg) currently exists from southwest to
northeast across the discussion area.

Water vapor imagery indicates another mid-level vorticity lobe over
the TX Hill Country will pivot east-northeast across the region
later this evening.  Upward vertical motion will correspondingly
increase this evening and aid in leading to a gradual
intensification of storms concurrent with a modest increase in
low-level moisture.  A wind profile supportive of supercells will
favor at least some hail/wind risk with the stronger/sustained
updrafts.  A tornado threat may also develop as temperature-dewpoint
spreads decrease this evening.  Sizable hodographs as indicated in
forecast soundings would favor a tendency for the stronger and more
discrete updrafts to acquire some low-level rotation but a
veer-back-veer signature in the hodograph may modulate an otherwise
greater risk for a few tornadoes.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30139686 32229569 32399465 31789397 30839430 30249489
            29869670 30139686 

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