DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. ...ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LARGELY PARALLEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS. NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT...A SEASONALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUALLY INCREASE EARLY TODAY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND TN VALLEY. VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE OF WHAT MAY BE UPSCALE-GROWING LINEAR CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED BOWS DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE EFFECTIVE-FRONT-ADJACENT WARM SECTOR AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DIURNALLY STEEPEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON PROBABLE TODAY...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR. ...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT... A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SCENARIO MAY BE FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WHAT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL/POSSIBLY WIND AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER/ROGERS.. 12/25/2015Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/s7Jkvo
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