SPC Dec 25, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD INTO SRN
AR/LA/WRN MS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO THE MID
MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW INITIALLY PROGGED TO LIE OVER FAR W TX AND
ADJACENT NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS TX SUNDAY --
THE GFS BEING FASTER THAN THE NAM IN TAKING THE LOW ALL THE WAY TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER S TX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS E
TX...OCCLUDING INTO SERN OK/THE ARKLATEX VICINITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS E TX AND INTO PARTS OF AR AND LA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND E OF
THE LOW.

...E TX/SRN AR/LA/WRN MS...
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD
/ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW
OCCURS.  AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BANDS OF STRONGER
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE...SOME ACQUIRING ROTATION GIVEN THE
EXPECTED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT.  ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH
STRONGER STORMS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  

DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE ZONE OF RISK
WILL ADVANCE GRADUALLY EWD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
INTO PARTS OF MS AND VICINITY -- PARTICULARLY IF THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION PROVES TO BE THE MORE CORRECT DEPICTION OF THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

..GOSS.. 12/25/2015

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