SPC MD 2019

MD 2019 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CST WED DEC 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 161736Z - 162230Z

SUMMARY...POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON IN A FAIRLY LOCALIZED REGION NORTH OF
ST. CLOUD AND NEAR/WEST OF DULUTH.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ST. CLOUD
AT 1715Z IS CONTINUING A SLOW DEEPENING TREND...LIKELY CLOSE TO
BOTTOMING OUT IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. A BAND OF CONVECTION NOW ROTATING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER ALOFT. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ASCENT IS IMPINGING ON AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THAT IS WEAKENING BUT STILL CONTRIBUTING TO
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF ASCENT EMANATING FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THESE TWO AREAS OF ASCENT SHOULD WORK TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL OVER THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING RATES OF 1 INCH/HR
FOR A FEW HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF A LINE GENERALLY FROM CAMBRIDGE TO DULUTH TO
BEAVER BAY WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...OR MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD PER TRENDS THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE THEREFORE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE MCD AREA. THE LOW AND ATTENDANT ASCENT SHOULD
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE MCD AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..CONIGLIO.. 12/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   47619174 47549139 47349134 47149170 46879221 46629255
            46509276 46069335 45979368 45829403 45749437 45949461
            46199449 46409423 46709375 47069321 47289273 47439236
            47619174 

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