SPC MD 2073

MD 2073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...FAR ERN NM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...FAR ERN NM

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 270521Z - 271015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND/OR SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HR...ESPECIALLY IN
WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING
NWD OUT OF THE TX S PLAINS TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE. RECENT REPORTS
FROM THE TX S PLAINS /INCLUDING THE LUBBOCK AREA/ SUGGEST A MIX OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW IS ONGOING. BOTH FORECAST AND
OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A WARM NOSE AROUND 750-800
MB ATOP A DEEPENING NEAR-SFC COLD LAYER...COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET AND
SNOW INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INITIALLY. A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
GRADIENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR PRIMARILY SNOW...ESPECIALLY INTO
WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS. RATES HERE ARE
LIKELY TO EXCEED ONE INCH PER HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WHERE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
WILL BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT...WITH SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EXPANDING E/NEWD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

..ROGERS.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35980058 36290239 35820324 35070340 33940319 33400308
            33270233 33490148 34050093 34850033 35980058 

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