SPC MD 2074

MD 2074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO WESTERN/NORTHERN AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270527Z - 270730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED
SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING...A LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY NONETHELESS
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST OK/FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN AR.

DISCUSSION...SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG/JUST BEHIND AN EFFECTIVE FRONT THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL AR. WHILE DISCRETE WARM SECTOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY...A FEW OF THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE
NEAR-SURFACE-BASED NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS INCLUDING UPWARDS OF 250-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH AS
PER THE FORT SMITH AR WSR-88D VWP. AS SUCH...A LOWER-END
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33579602 35129503 36339356 36339266 36149260 34879327
            33479497 33579602 

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