SPC MD 2076

MD 2076 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SRN KS AND NWRN TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR SRN KS
AND NWRN TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 270938Z - 271545Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS INCLUDES FREEZING RAIN...ALONG WITH AREAS
OF SLEET.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD...CONVECTIVELY GENERATED PRECIPITATION OVER
CNTRL TX IS ADVANCING NNEWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE
ANTECEDENT COLD ADVECTION AND WET-BULB-COOLING HAVE SUPPORTED THE
INFLUX OF SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
OK MESONET AND ASOS SITES INDICATE THE 32-F ISOTHERM ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEDFORD...TO KINGFISHER...TO HOBART...TO 
ALTUS -- EXTENDING NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS AND SWWD INTO WRN NORTH TX.
LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS WELL N OF A DEEP CYCLONE -- WHOSE PRECEDING
ASCENT IS ENCOURAGING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- WILL SUPPORT
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE 32-F ISOTHERM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS WRN OK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT SWD/SEWD
SHIFT IN THIS ISOTHERM ACROSS SWRN OK. ELEVATED WARM-LAYER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2-5 C WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING
OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS...WHICH WILL RE-FREEZE TO THE W/NW OF THE
32-F ISOTHERM RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN AND AREAS OF SLEET.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH
SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.10-0.25 INCH PER HOUR. THE HIGHEST
OF THESE RATES -- AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER ONES -- MAY ACCOMPANY
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION PARTICULARLY INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHERE SLEET MAY BE MORE PREDOMINANT. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WILL BECOME PREVALENT FROM SSW TO NNE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE...VERY STRONG
NLY WINDS -- WITH GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH COMMON -- WILL AFFECT THE 
AREA -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ON
WHICH ICE ACCUMULATES.

..COHEN.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36469743 35479788 34399888 34159934 34209999 34330017
            34790019 35959952 36689891 37119828 37149754 36799741
            36469743 

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