SPC MD 2077

MD 2077 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND VICINITY...FAR WRN OK...NERN/E-CNTRL NM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND
VICINITY...FAR WRN OK...NERN/E-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 271036Z - 271630Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
INCLUDES THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COMBINING
WITH HEAVY SNOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COILING AROUND THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP
CYCLONE. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY FORMING A COMMA-HEAD STRUCTURE
ATTENDANT TO THE CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER IS APPROACHING THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION. DEEP SUBFREEZING AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THUS...GIVEN THE EWD TRAJECTORY OF THE CYCLONE THIS
MORNING...PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF
E-CNTRL/NERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO FAR WRN OK THIS
MORNING -- WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1.0 TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY AS
ASCENDING BRANCHES OF FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS INTERSECT
NEAR-SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.

FURTHERMORE...SFC ANALYSES REVEAL A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN COMBINATION WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUPPORT VERY STRONG WINDS. SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NLY TO NNELY SFC WINDS AROUND 25-30 KT WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 KT COMMON -- LOCALLY STRONGER. ZERO
VISIBILITY/WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DAMAGE MAY RESULT FROM THESE
WINDS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MAY BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX IN THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING -- LESSENING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NWRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE MIGRATORY DEEP CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT AREAS OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE.

..COHEN.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35789966 35560018 35070154 34110305 33940412 34270471
            34980498 35740467 36560321 36850128 36769974 36549943
            36099944 35789966 

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