SPC MD 2078

MD 2078 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SW TX AND VICINITY AND SERN NM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TX AND VICINITY AND SERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 271115Z - 271615Z

SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS PARTS OF SW TX AND VICINITY INTO SERN NM...WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY SNOW PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL TX CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE CORE OF A
DEEP CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER IS PRESENTLY EMERGING OVER THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION -- AS IMPLIED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS
DCVA PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER SPREADS EWD AND MOISTURE CYCLES
THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP SUBFREEZING THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SNOW AS A COMMON PRECIPITATION TYPE. A
GENERALLY NLY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE
UPSLOPE-FLOW-RELATED ASCENT OVER N- AND NE-FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN NM...LOCALLY ENHANCING SNOWFALL
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z-13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE TX S PLAINS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
MAY ALLOW FOR MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. THIS COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE MORNING. LOCALIZED FREEZING-RAIN RATES TO
0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR WITH SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES TO AROUND
0.10-0.25 INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR.

..COHEN.. 12/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31500479 32410554 33190598 33620574 33680445 33920346
            33940235 31250185 30310314 30830417 31500479 

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