SPC MD 2102

MD 2102 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 281704Z - 282300Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z. FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES UP TO 0.05 INCH/HR
POSSIBLE...SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...AS A COMPACT...CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FROM THE SW...A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM IL/WRN IND. CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICT A MIX OF ONGOING LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SNOW/SLEET BEING
REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI...AND FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS
OF NRN IND AND NWRN OH. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DETROIT MI CONTAINED A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM 900-500 MB...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE/MOISTEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. ONE
EFFECT OF THIS MOISTENING WILL BE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THIS
LAYER TO THE WET-BULB TEMPERATURE...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL BURST OF
MODERATE SNOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...FORECAST WAA MAINLY IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A TRANSITION FROM S TO N ACROSS THE MCD AREA TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH 22-23Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.05 INCH/HR APPEAR
POSSIBLE GIVEN ONGOING RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
QPF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO
LIQUID RAIN ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC TEMPERATURE CLIMBS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

..GLEASON.. 12/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   42968635 43018457 42828237 42188283 41678332 41158418
            41228629 41628746 42178667 42968635 

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