SPC MD 2103

MD 2103 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NRN IL...ERN IA...FAR SERN MN...AND SRN/CNTRL WI

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...ERN IA...FAR SERN MN...AND
SRN/CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 281813Z - 282315Z

SUMMARY...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES NWD. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS
ERN IA INTO FAR SERN MN...NWRN IL...AND SWRN/CNTRL WI.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN IL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WAA CENTERED AROUND 700 MB ALLOWS FOR
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS FALLING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLING PER
RECENT RADAR MOSAICS...FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH/HR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMULATING SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE.
STRONG OBSERVED ELY WINDS OF 20-35 KT OWING TO AN ENHANCED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH MAY EXACERBATE POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
OCCURRING MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN
IA INTO FAR SERN MN AND PORTIONS OF SWRN/SRN WI. THIS SNOW BAND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN
AR/SRN MO SHIFTS QUICKLY NWD BY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS A DRY
MID-LEVEL LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING QUICKLY SATURATES.
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA...NAMELY NRN IL AND E-CNTRL
IA...CONTINUED WAA AT LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC FREEZING LINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY LATEST RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND QPF OUTPUT. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY LIQUID RAIN
BY 22-23Z.

..GLEASON.. 12/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44279126 44348924 44198748 43268773 42488770 41798747
            41718826 41558987 41489107 41819191 42509255 43359261
            44279126 

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