DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO WRN LA... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX INTO SERN LA... ...SUMMARY... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ...DISCUSSION... EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION REMAIN. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS EVOLVING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SERN TX/SWRN LA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IS SPREADING TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY...PER 00Z SOUNDING AT LCH. 500MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO -17C AT LCH WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN PLACE ATOP MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. NUMEROUS TSTMS...MANY SUPERCELLULAR...WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS SEVERE HAIL ACCOMPANIES MANY OF THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NOTED WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELL MOVING INTO NRN SAN JACINTO COUNTY TX. OBSERVED LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SIG HAIL CONTINUING. ..DARROW.. 01/09/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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