SPC MD 7

MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1... FOR SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1...

VALID 090031Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...A RASH OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS HAS ERUPTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SERN TX IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY ABOVE A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE SFC LAYER...AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS
LATITUDE...WHICH IS COMPENSATING FOR THE RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS. SEVERAL OF
THESE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST MIDLEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
RADAR.

WHILE THE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD WITH
TIME...THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONAL. THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OF 63-66 F EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF
SAID DEWPOINTS...SUGGESTING ANY SFC-BASED ROTATION MAY BE RELEGATED
TO NEAR-COASTAL COUNTIES. SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH COULD BE
UPGRADED TO TORNADO IF SFC OBSERVATIONS AND STORM TRENDS REQUIRE.

..JEWELL.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   28759474 29139580 31359609 32219485 32639397 32579340
            32149312 31359279 30459233 29889215 29389230 28779315
            28689382 28759474 

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