SPC MD 15

MD 0015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SRN FL PENINSULA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 100007Z - 100100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONG CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...WSWWD INTO THE
CNTRL GULF BASIN.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SEVERAL DISTINCT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE PROGRESSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND ONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM WITH SUBSTANTIAL ROTATION HAS MOVED INLAND
OVER LEE COUNTY.  

LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE
SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.  IT APPEARS THIS
WSW-ENE ORIENTED MCS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING.  NUMEROUS SMALLER DISCRETE STRUCTURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SEASONALLY MOIST LOW
LEVELS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..DARROW/MEAD.. 01/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   26048321 26498233 26858132 26688058 26068055 25568284
            26048321 

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