MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF COASTAL SRN CA INCLUDING THE SAN
DIEGO AREA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062232Z - 070000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SMALL BOWING QLCS SEGMENT IS APPROACHING THE SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...WSR-88D LOOPS INDICATE A SMALL QLCS WITH AN EMBEDDED
BOWING COMPONENT OFF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST ADVANCING ESEWD
AROUND 25-30 KT...WITH A LEADING ROTATING CELL NEARING THE COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND N OF SAN DIEGO IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- ESPECIALLY IN THE
2245-2330 UTC TIME FRAME. THE NKX VWP SAMPLES AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND 55 KT OF 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR AND 20 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY WILL
MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR RISK. HOWEVER...SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S/...WHEN COUPLED WITH SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING...TO WARRANT
SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED SVR RISK TO AFFECT COASTAL SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND AREAS JUST ONSHORE. A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...OR PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS ADDRESSED IN PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED MCD 0001...THE SVR RISK IS PEAKING PRESENTLY...AND SHOULD BE
DECEASING AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INLAND BY
ABOUT 20 MILES BECOMING REMOVED FROM MOISTER/MARITIME AIR.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 01/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...
LAT...LON 32501710 32881721 33141737 33181718 32961694 32661688
32491695 32501710
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