SPC MD 3

MD 0003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062335Z - 070100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES EVOLVING WITHIN A N/S BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION E/NE OF A SFC MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR ALICE
TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PRIMARILY ELEVATED...AS VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLIER SUGGESTED AGITATED/GLACIATING CUMULUS EVOLVING ATOP
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK OVERLYING THE AREA IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL CIRCULATION RELATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD FLUXES OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE CRP VWP INDICATES 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL
WSWLYS ABOVE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THAT COULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AS EVIDENT WITH A CELL OVER NRN
SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. OTHER CELLS EVOLVING ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION
PLUME FARTHER S MAY MATURE/INTENSIFY. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...PRECLUDING ANY MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 01/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...

LAT...LON   27509762 27779764 28179717 28109691 27679722 27489741
            27509762 

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