MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SW-SCNTRL MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
VALID 211944Z - 212145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN LA
AND INTO SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 5.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CLUSTER OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN WRN LA. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN TX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR TO A SFC LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND TRACK EWD ACROSS LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS IN
THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW ARE BACKED TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS ARE STARTING TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN WRN LA...THE WSR-88D VWP
AT POE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR HAS HAD 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
NEAR 300 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
FURTHER TO THE EAST NEAR THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY HAS MARKEDLY
INCREASED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32109281 31089323 30389343 30119328 29979268 29849144
29988969 31208915 32068943 32299008 32109281
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