SPC MD 36

MD 0036 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR A PORTION OF SERN LA NEWD INTO SWRN AND S-CNTRL MS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF SERN LA NEWD INTO SWRN AND S-CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...

VALID 212257Z - 220000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO RISK OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED FROM NEAR AND NORTH OF BATON ROUGE TO NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON.

DISCUSSION...22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A TRIPLE
POINT 1008MB LOW 30 MI NNW MCB WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
NW TO SE AND AN EFFECTIVE/MARITIME FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER NWWD INTO SERN LA AND NNEWD INTO S-CNTRL MS.  A NARROW
WEDGE OF RICHER AND PARTIALLY MODIFIED MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S IS LOCATED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.  VAD WIND TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 2-4 HOURS AT KDGX SHOW SWLY WINDS INCREASING BY 10 KT IN
THE 2-5KM LAYER--RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE
/150-200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/.  AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN LA
MATURE AND DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION WILL PROBABLY INCREASE.  A SUPERCELL
TORNADO RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND A DMGG WIND
THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST BOTH WITH THE SUPERCELLS AND WITH AREAS WHERE
THE CONVECTIVE LINE SURGES/BOWS.

..SMITH.. 01/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30799135 31679055 32258986 32238948 31928937 30509067
            30799135 

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