MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 212329Z - 220130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 02Z. DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SERN LA AND BUOYS E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INDICATE THE MARITIME FRONT IS ROUGHLY 50 MI S OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF MS AND AL. AS THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES NWD THIS EVENING COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A MORE FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND A MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT 1) ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND 2) WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CONTINENTAL SHELF VICINITY MOVING ASHORE AND POSING A SEVERE RISK. PRIOR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE PASSAGE OVER THE MOBILE BAY AND WRN FL PANHANDLE VICINITY LATER TONIGHT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO AOA 300 M2 PER S2---COMPARATIVELY HIGHER THAN VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING ONCE STORMS ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE S AND W. ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 01/21/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30278951 32498881 32108747 30918633 30338629 30278951Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/ysML2I
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