MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND S TX EWD TO THE
MIDDLE TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18...
VALID 230854Z - 231030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...AND EWD INTO THE WRN GULF. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN TX ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH
AN AREA OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT MAX/JET LEFT
EXIT REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE NOW CROSSING SRN PORTIONS OF
THE WW S OF SAT AND NW OF CRP. THE STORMS -- COMPRISED OF A SERIES
OF FAIRLY INTENSE/SMALL BANDS -- ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD TOWARD THE
COAST. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXIST ACROSS COASTAL AREAS PER
LATEST ANALYSIS...THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NONETHELESS APPEARS TO
REMAIN VERY SLIGHTLY STABLE. STILL...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE AND YIELD LOCAL
DAMAGE. ATTM...A MORE STABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTING
ENELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS...NEW WW APPEARS
UNNECESSARY ATTM FARTHER E ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF THE EXISTING WW IN TIME/AREA MAY
PROVE NECESSARY /GIVEN THE SCHEDULED 23/10Z EXPIRATION OF THE WW
0018/...UNTIL THE RISK FULLY SHIFTS INTO THE WRN GULF.
..GOSS.. 02/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28190018 29109964 29559849 29679717 29459581 29109457
28749461 27939696 28190018
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